The Black Swan Portfolio Performance: 17.96% Year-to-Date

The Black Swan Portfolio

This is a short update on how the model portfolios of the exclusive research service The Black Swan Portfolio have been doing. I will also briefly discuss some of our favorite holdings within the portfolio. You can read more about the methodology used here. Within the service there are two model portfolios: The Black Swan Portfolio which is a very aggressive portfolio. (Very aggressive equity investments but no options.) The Numeraire which is a very defensive portfolio. (Think a cash alternative.) The aggressive The Black Swan Portfolio is what I’ve been running since inception of the service in 2015. It exceeded all […]

State Of The Market

The CAPE ratio measures the price of stocks divided by the average of ten years of earnings (moving average) and adjusts that for inflation. A high CAPE ratio often results in low returns in the subsequent decade. Only the 1999 tech bubble exceeded the current CAPE ratio by much. The GDP to Total Market Ratio is another valuation measure, aka the Buffett indicator, that is at a very high level. The Wilshire Total Market, containing 5000 stocks, serves as a proxy for Total Market. The Wilshire’s total market value is exceeding GDP. Previously total market value exceeded GDP in the late […]