The Black Swan Portfolio In 2017

The Black Swan Portfolio service includes two model portfolios made up from our selections. One aggressive portfolio which is called The Black Swan Portfolio named after the service and the other is a “cash alternative” portfolio called the Numeraire. A cash alternative that should as a whole be more robust to disasters like inflation, deflation, confiscation and devastation even though it contains some elements that, isolated, are very volatile and risky. The Black Swan Portfolio returned 49.23% in the last financial year. The Numeraire returned 9.73% in the last financial year. Tracking returns is a big problem as it is […]

The 4-Minute Portfolio: 3 Investment Strategies That Take Virtually No Time And Are Big Winners

Many people are interested in running a simple strategy that outperforms the market without doing any fundamental or technical research. It shouldn’t have surprised me at all as there’s an entire “smart-beta” industry built around this desire. Smart-beta products are based on strategies that have been found by academic researchers to outperform. To make them scale the strategies are usually watered down versions and I have sincere doubt they work after the people who provide the smart-beta product take their fees. The good news is that you as an individual investor don’t need a strategy that scales at all. Outperforming […]

What Is A Barbell Portfolio?

I think that the first thing is you should have a strategic asset allocation mix that assumes that you don’t know what the future is going to hold. -Ray Dalio A barbell portfolio divides investments up into a horizontal universe and cuts out the middle part. Imagine investments ranked along a rectangle shaped spectrum as shown below. Allocation percentage on the y-axis and maturities on the x-axis: The concept is most easily understood by using the example of a bond only portfolio. Short term bonds are often considered risk free or low in risk and the barbell portfolio loads up […]

The Black Swan Portfolio Performance: 17.96% Year-to-Date

The Black Swan Portfolio

This is a short update on how the model portfolios of the exclusive research service The Black Swan Portfolio have been doing. I will also briefly discuss some of our favorite holdings within the portfolio. You can read more about the methodology used here. Within the service there are two model portfolios: The Black Swan Portfolio which is a very aggressive portfolio. (Very aggressive equity investments but no options.) The Numeraire which is a very defensive portfolio. (Think a cash alternative.) The aggressive The Black Swan Portfolio is what I’ve been running since inception of the service in 2015. It exceeded all […]

18 Junior Gold Miner Picks You Can Steal From The World’s Greatest Investors

If ever there was an area in which to do the exact opposite of that which government and the media urge you to do, that area is the purchasing of gold. — Robert Ringer ETFs or Exchange Traded Funds are all the rage now. Theoretically they offer individual investors an improved investing experience over the traditional mutual fund. In practice things aren’t so crystal clear. One ETF that’s a terrible vehicle to buy is the Van Eck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ). It is an exchange traded fund that is supposed to hold a large number of junior gold miners. […]

7 Things You Need To Know Before Investing In The Next Hot ICO

Initial Coin Offerings or ICOs are an event where cryptocurrency projects sell cryptocurrency tokens to investors. It’s not a coincidence it is called ICO as the process resembles an IPO or Initial Public Offering, with some key differences. Every ICO is different as well and I highly encourage you to do thorough due diligence before taking part in one. Here are seven things you need to be aware of that apply to most of them. History An ICO is not the same thing as an IPO but it shares important characteristics. Unfortunately, IPOs have historically delivered subpar returns. The stats […]

State Of The Market

The CAPE ratio measures the price of stocks divided by the average of ten years of earnings (moving average) and adjusts that for inflation. A high CAPE ratio often results in low returns in the subsequent decade. Only the 1999 tech bubble exceeded the current CAPE ratio by much. The GDP to Total Market Ratio is another valuation measure, aka the Buffett indicator, that is at a very high level. The Wilshire Total Market, containing 5000 stocks, serves as a proxy for Total Market. The Wilshire’s total market value is exceeding GDP. Previously total market value exceeded GDP in the late […]